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A fragile recovery. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raises its forecasts for global growth in 2023 and 2024

On Friday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development raised its expectations for global growth with inflation slowing and China reopening its borders after abandoning the Covid-zero policy, but the recovery remains fragile amid major difficulties they face. some banks.

The international organization currently expects global growth of 2.6 percent for 2023 and 2.9 percent for 2024, according to its provisional economic forecasts.

And the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development released these new figures yesterday amid a banking crisis, saying that raising interest rates “may continue to reveal financial vulnerabilities associated with high indebtedness and overvaluation of certain assets,” such as recently showed the shutdown or bailout. of many US banks according to “French”

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a statement that “signs of the impact of restrictive monetary policies are beginning to appear in some aspects of the banking sector, particularly in regional banks in the United States.”

He added: “Sudden changes in market interest rates and the current market value of bond portfolios can also reveal risks to bond duration in financial institutions’ models, as evidenced by the Silicon Valley collapse. Bank in March in the United States.”

The organization did not take into account the difficulties Credit Suisse faced this week in its report. The collapse of this bank represents an integral threat to the global economy.

But despite the risks, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects a “gradual improvement” in the overall economic situation over the course of 2023 and 2024, with inflation slowing.

Global growth is expected to benefit from the “full reopening of China’s borders”, whose activity is expected to pick up in 2023.

The rise in commodity prices in the G20 countries, which account for about 85 percent of global GDP, is expected to slow from 8.1 percent in 2022 to 4.5 percent in 2024, according to the organization. .

Compared with its latest economic forecast in November, global growth increased 0.4 percentage points for this year and 0.2 percentage points for next.

Germany will now escape this year’s economic downturn with growth of 0.3 percent versus France’s 0.7 percent, while US growth will be 1.5 percent versus 0.5 percent, as previously expected.

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