An international organization raises its global growth forecasts for the years 2023 and 2024

On Friday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development raised its global growth forecast with inflation slowing and China reopening its borders after abandoning the Covid-zero policy, but the recovery remains fragile amid major difficulties they face. some banks.

The international organization currently expects global growth of 2.6% for the year 2023 and 2.9% for the year 2024, according to its intermediate economic forecasts.

And the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development published these new figures on Friday, amid a banking crisis, considering that raising interest rates “may continue to reveal financial vulnerabilities associated with high indebtedness and excessive valuation of certain assets”, as recently shown by the closure or bailout of many banks.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development indicated in a statement that “signs of the impact of more restrictive monetary policies are beginning to appear in some aspects of the banking sector, especially in the regional banks of the United States.”

“Sudden changes in market interest rates and the current market value of bond portfolios can also reveal long-term risks in financial institutions’ models, as demonstrated by the March collapse of Silicon Valley in the United States. united,” he added.

The organization did not take into account the difficulties Credit Suisse faced this week in its report. The collapse of this bank represents an integral threat to the global economy.

But despite the risks, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects a “gradual improvement” in the overall economic situation over the course of 2023 and 2024, with inflation slowing.

Global growth is expected to benefit from the “full reopening of China’s borders”, which is expected to pick up in 2023.

The rise in the prices of raw materials can decrease in the G20 countries, which represent about 85% of world GDP, to go from 8.1% in 2022 to 4.5% in 2024, according to the organization.

Compared with its latest economic forecast in November, global growth increased 0.4 percentage points this year and 0.2 percentage points next.

Germany will now escape this year’s economic downturn with growth of 0.3% vs. France’s 0.7%, while US growth will hit 1.5% vs. 0.5% previously forecast .