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Cac 40 pulls itself together, if work is weak in Europe, Wall Street wants to return, Market News

The Paris Stock Exchange is struggling to recover on Tuesday morning, after falling nearly 2% the day before. Although the eurozone industrial and employment PMI figures in August remain weak, they still provide comfort, as they are better than analysts had feared.

According to this flash data, the group index in the euro area remains in the area of ​​cooperation, at 49.2 points, against 49.9 points in July, but slightly above the 49 points that have been in line with the agreement, thanks to the average firm in the industry, while the non-manufacturing sector suffered less than expected. It was from Germany that the surprise came in particular, with the industrial index returning to close to the 50 level, therefore close to growth, for more than a month.

The recession has already begun

The latest PMI data shows a contraction in eurozone employment for the second month in a row in August, explains S&P Global. Prices paid and prices paid by businesses in the euro area also increased on a firm basis in August. However, the survey shows further signs that inflation is slowing, with prices and prices down compared to July. “But” rising petrol prices and domestic pressures are driving inflation higher, at the same time he angers Jack Allen-Reynolds, of Capital Economics, for whom these PMIs mean that the recession has already started in Europe.

After opening the base and pullback maximum 0.74%, and Bedroom 40 will return in the middle of the morning (+ 0.29% to 6,397.05 points), supported mainly by the rise in oil prices, up to about 98 dollars per barrel of Brent, while OPEC said it was ready to reduce production to repair the recent decline in oil prices linked to economic fears, the Minister of Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said. TotalEnergies Take the opportunity to earn more than 1%. In SRD, oil works CGG and Vallourec taking more than 5%, Technip Powers 3%

The trend benefits mainly from the prospect of a slight recovery expected on Wall Street, where futures contracts show an increase of about 0.3% to 0.4% in the main indices. A move that remains highly technical at this point. Yesterday, they released for the second day in a row. The Dow Jones lost 1.91%, the S&P 500 lost 2.14% and the Nasdaq Composite 2.55%. This is their worst performance since June.

Worryingly ahead of the Jackson Hole conference, many market analysts agree that Fed President Jerome Powell will be more difficult than what happened in July’s monetary policy. The financial situation allows. Although inflation is over 8.5% per year, the labor market is still strong, as it was in the last season of the company’s results. The trend of a 75 basis point hike in the prime rates in September is also growing. According to a tool developed by CME based on futures Fed-money, the probability is estimated at 58.5%, compared to only 47.5% on Monday morning. The yield on the 10-year bond rose above 3% yesterday (3.007% this morning) for the first time in a month.

“Events Ending”

Another negative of this period should be sought in Europe, with the fear of economic collapse that seems inevitable, while the threat of inflation has not been seen and the European Central Bank, too, should be very depressing. . Especially since electricity prices are constantly rising, especially for gas, which has returned to levels not seen since the first days of the invasion of Ukraine, increased by more than five since the beginning of the year across the Rhine. Russian gas giant Gazprom announced on Friday that gas it sends to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 oil pipeline will be interrupted for three days, from August 31 to September 2, for “maintenance” reasons. Germany, which accounts for more than 30% of euro zone GDP, is in the lead. ” Instead of raising prices more than necessary, Christine Lagarde should have asked Putin to restore power to Europe », judge this morning Ipek Ozkardeskaya, of Swissquote.

For Ed Moya, market analyst at Oanda, “ events that are built around global growth are collapsing, that is weighing on the risk right now, the US cannot continue to be attractive while the rest of the world is failing. »

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