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Crypto spot of the weekend: How much could the market recover?

If you haven’t had a chance to take advantage of the recent bull run in cryptocurrencies, it’s best not to top up your favorite assets right away. Indeed, we must not forget that we have been in a bear market since November 2021. As this dynamic has accelerated in recent months, it is quite normal to witness a bullish rebound. However, this impulse might make you believe one thing: that you have missed rock bottom. To be honest, we don’t know, but that shouldn’t push you into buying without first determining how assets are doing against their key levels.

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Total market capitalization bounces off the top of the range?

Total Cryptocurrency Market Price (1D)

As of last week, the market had an opportunity to bounce off the upper limit of the range we had identified for several weeks. As I told you, the goal was to avoid a rollback, which is happening right now. However, note that the daily swing pattern is bearish. So, theoretically, we are still in an upward correction before we break the bottom point to the downside.

For the market to be able to extend this upward momentum, the goal is to break out of the current red zone and return to the summer bottom of 2021. It is a confluence of levels that is not negligible. Once this is done, the market will likely be able to return to $1.2 trillion. This level was a local support that allowed the market, from mid-May to early June, to pause in its downward momentum. In the event of a reversal to the downside, the current trackable level is the low of $923 billion. In case of loss, it will mean a reversal of the daily trend which is bullish.

Bullish momentum preserved on altcoins?

The market capitalization price of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum on a daily scale
Cryptocurrency market cap price excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum (1D)

Compared to last week, I improved my bearish swing pattern which was misidentified and too wide. The bullish trend is still preserved, altcoins continue (for now) their retreat. So last week’s bullish bias was right for altcoins. However, we are coming to a confluence of noted technical levels. With the old daily support never retested except for the last few days, we have a daily supply zone that is still valid. Supply zone H4 is no longer valid, but I still materialized it for you so you can understand where it was.

The current challenge is this: break through the daily supply zone to have a new bullish target on altcoins (a supply zone that is in contact with resistance). If the price is rejected at the current level, it will show the strength of the sellers who did not have the last word. For the internal structure to become weak again, I invite you to look at the low of $363 billion. In the case of closing or falling below this minimum, we will have to think about intermediate prices.

Bitcoin dominance still in an unfavorable configuration?

Bitcoin dominance rate on daily scale
Bitcoin Domination Course (1D)

For now, the dynamics remain the same as in the past two weeks. Bitcoin continues to lose strength against the rest of the market. We can see that right now with the formation of a new low. This shows that the daily trend is bearish. Currently at an important technical level, if Bitcoin dominance fails to operate a trend reversal with a recovery of (so far) 42.63%, we can maintain a bearish bias.

Price seems to be following the chart note I made last week. I am not trying to describe the future movement identically. However, it helps to understand the structure that can occur. Yes, sooner or later Bitcoin will regain control in this bear market. So the identified levels are always the same, I invite you to pay attention to 41.32%. This level is an important low point.

Ethereum is not giving up and continues to rise against Bitcoin

Ethereum price vs. Bitcoin on a daily basis
Ethereum Price vs. Bitcoin (1D)

I had the opportunity to update this chart by replacing the old red zone (still valid) with a daily supply zone. This allows for a larger area of ​​intervention. For now, Ethereum manages to extend its uptrend by continuing to record higher peaks than the previous ones. So, until we break the previous low which is (for now) at 0.0651 bitcoin, the internal structure is bullish.

I would like to warn you about increased vigilance at current levels. The top of the bearish swing range should theoretically be preserved. So, sooner or later, Ethereum should fall again against Bitcoin. This reversal would be ideal in the orange supply zone. However, nothing is certain as it is entirely possible to have a bullish breakout of a bearish momentum pattern. It is better to wait for certain technical configurations and rely on what we currently have. The goal is not to predict the future, but to adapt as quickly as possible to price changes.

ALTPERP index that must be monitored closely.

Altcoin Index Perpetual Futures daily price
Altcoin Index Perpetual Futures daily price

Since the analysis of the index, since July 10, altcoins have managed to gain strength by breaking out of the resistance that had to be followed. With the bullish resistance breaking operation, there was a reversal of the internal structure. This helped establish bullish targets for this index. While still in an uptrend, the index is currently in the weekly bid zone nested within the daily bid zone. Therefore, one should be careful at this point.

Indeed, sellers could use the altcoin’s return to key technical levels to resurface. This would prevent buyers from breaking a bearish swing pattern. So what would be the sign of an index reversal? Given the current price structure, a bearish breakout of the demand zone with a loss of $1708 will confirm a reversal of the current trend.

Here we are at the end of this weekend’s crypto spot. If there’s one thing I want to bring to your attention, it’s the confluence of technical levels that the market as a whole is facing. Whether it’s altcoins or Ethereum vs. Bitcoin, the market is in a daily uptrend. However, it comes at the top of a bearish swing pattern. Therefore, be careful and do not hesitate to take partial profits. Remember that we are in a bear market with an unfavorable macroeconomic context. If the market continues to grow, there will always be new opportunities.

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