DWS – Germany / Eurozone Purchasing Managers Indices – August: Weak, but not dangerous – PATRIMOINE24 – All news on economic management
As expected, the PMIs are showing a slowdown in the economy, and most of them were weaker than last month.
A surprising hope comes from the German industry: Indeed, the total number has increased slightly and at 49.8 points is not far from the “normal situation” of 50. Regulations have also changed a little, as have prices. However, it should be considered that the recent increase in electricity prices was not included in this study. The German service sector has lost, but at the same time the trade forecast has improved significantly and, at 54.2 points, is clearly growing.
The French statistics also show a decline in economic activity – the overall index is now below 50, the negative results come mainly from higher education.
These numbers are consistent with our view that the German economy, and subsequently the entire European economy, will weaken this winter, but that a recession can be avoided. Price pressures will continue, consumers will run out of money in their wallets, causing them to cut back on winter consumption. However, to save from the epidemic, the need for moderation and the gradual reduction of network problems should prevent possible problems.
Martin Moryson, European Economist, DWS
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