On the occasion of the publication of the book on April 22, the CIA predicted Moscow’s ambitions in Ukraine and around the world in 2022.New threats to our world as seen by the CIA“, (Équateurs Editions, 2022). These US intelligence forecasts are all the more interesting because they predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February.
Ukraine: What role does the CIA play in the conflict?
Almost a month later, this Tuesday, May 10, the director of American intelligence, Avril Haynes, confirmed before senators that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing a “.protracted conflict“Ukraine. What does it mean?
Vladimir Putin expects food shortages, inflation and fuel shortages to weaken the resolve of the United States and the European Union.Avril Haynes, director of US intelligence.
Putin would be prepared to prolong the conflict
Russia says it is more willing and able to deal with the long-term consequences of war than its adversaries, Avril Haynes told senators on Tuesday. Vladimir Putin”Food shortages, inflation and fuel shortages are expected to weaken the resolve of the United States and the European Union.You,” he added.
(Re)watch: The war in Ukraine: Odessa hit by Russian missiles
Faced with Russian determination, the Ukrainians are again arguing for victory. According to Avril Haynes, the diplomatic route seems hard to imagine.
Defense Intelligence Agency chief Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier even noted “A stalemate on the battlefield“A stalemate is more likely because Putin’s ambitions don’t seem to match the capabilities of the Russian military. In fact, war could break out.”More unpredictable and the two rebels may grow”, worries Avril Haynes.
Putin’s victory objective will be much broader than Donbass
According to Avril Haynes’ statement, the Russian strategy includes consolidating control of a land bridge connecting Russia, Donbas and Crimea. “Vladimir Putin wants to connect Crimea and the conquered territories around Crimea.“(…), explained Emmanuel Dupuy, President of the Institute for Prospects and Security in Europe (IPSE). .
This would gradually tear the region apart to achieve a kind of geographical coherence. Emmanuel Dupuy, President of the Institute for Prospects and Security in Europe (IPSE)
“This will, gradually, tear the region apart to achieve a kind of geographical coherence”, he added. “Ideally, and this is what Haynes tells us, he will focus his attention on Odessa on the Crimean coast and sow a halo around Kherson, where the Internet has been cut off. In Mariupol, it will give the impression that the city is being reborn from its ashes“, he added.
According to US intelligence, Putin’s goal is to extend a land bridge to Transnistria, including the capture of Odessa. This separatist region is recognized by the international community as part of Moldova. But according to US intelligence, this effort is unlikely to succeed.
Read (re)read: Wide Angle: Moldova on Putin’s sights after Ukraine
In this strategy,The next month or two of war will be significant for Vladimir Putin. The Russians are trying to revive their efforts“, says Avril Haynes.
Putin should not make a nuclear threat unless it is an existential threat
Russia’s nuclear threat is an attempt to dissuade the West from providing more lethal aid to Kiev, says Avril Haynes. But if Washington ignores the threat, Putin could authorize a new round of nuclear weapons drills, added Avril Haynes. The exercise could include mobile intercontinental missiles, heavy bombers and strategic submarines.
We also believe that Putin would likely authorize the use of nuclear weapons if he felt an existential threat. Avril Haynes, director of US intelligence
“We also believe that Putin would likely authorize the use of nuclear weapons if he felt an existential threat.“, he qualifies. Putin may consider the possibility of defeat in Ukraine as such a threat.”We believe that Putin may perceive the threat as existential if he feels that he is losing the war in Ukraine and that NATO is going to intervene in this context.” said April Haynes.
Following this decision by American intelligence, the House of Representatives approved this Tuesday, May 10, a $40 billion aid program consisting of nearly $15 billion in military equipment, training, support for intelligence and salaries for the Ukrainian army.
