Bitcoin Price Trends in 2024 Reflect Historical Halving Patterns
Historical data indicates that Bitcoin’s price movements in 2024 mirror the patterns observed in previous halving years, such as 2016 and 2020. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at market intelligence platform CryptoQuant, shared this observation on X, citing insights from the “Cumulative Return Index for Halving Years,” a metric tracking Bitcoin’s price movement for each halving year.
Bitcoin Follows Previous Patterns
Interestingly, the metric highlights that Bitcoin’s price movements were similar at the start of each of the four halving years: 2012, 2016, 2020, and now, 2024. However, a notable difference this year was the rapid price surge toward the end of the first quarter.
Bitcoin’s upward trend in this cycle began in September 2023. Since then, the leading cryptocurrency has recorded seven consecutive months of consistent gains. This rally peaked with a new record high above $73,000 in March 2024, a month before Bitcoin’s halving.
This was unprecedented, as Bitcoin had always reached a new all-time high post-halving, not before. Analysts attribute the shift in trend to the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which injected substantial capital into the market. At the time of writing, ETF products accounted for $17 billion in net inflows within seven months.
After breaking the all-time high in March 2024, Bitcoin faced a correction, dropping 15% in April. This marked its first monthly loss since September 2023. Losses continued into the second quarter of 2024, but data from the Cumulative Return Index suggests that this decline brought Bitcoin back on track to the levels seen in previous cycles.
Ongoing Performance
Fundamentally, despite concerns about pullbacks, Bitcoin is currently trading at the same levels as in past halvings. This indicates that the cryptocurrency is exactly where it should be according to historical data from the 2016 and 2020 halvings. The only anomaly was in 2012 when Bitcoin’s value surged by 220% from $5 to $16 between May and August.
However, in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin experienced significant stabilization from March to August. This confirms that the current market situation is not unique. Interestingly, more data suggests that there might be light at the end of the tunnel. In 2016 and 2020, after stabilizing from the second to the third quarter, Bitcoin rebounded towards the fourth quarter.
Citing this pattern, Moreno emphasized that if Bitcoin rebounds from its ongoing downtrend, it could happen in the fourth quarter of this year. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is currently trading at $58,405. Market veteran Peter Brandt forecasts an eventual rise to $92,579.
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