The unpredictability of Bitcoin’s price has been a topic of discussion, particularly as it pertains to a specific model that accurately predicted the 2021 peak at over $60,000 back in 2019. Now, the same model is indicating a potential peak nearing $732,000 per coin. This begs the question: is this forecast realistic or merely hopeful speculation? Let’s take an in-depth look at the model and seek to understand its implications.
During the recent bull market peak predictions, the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, developed back in 2019, emerged as a reliable tool for forecasting Bitcoin prices. However, Greg Cipolaro made highly precise adjustments to the S2F model, now exposed in Plan B. While Plan B failed to drive the price of Bitcoin above $100,000 or beyond, Cipolaro’s model succeeded in reaching a peak range approaching $60,000.
In April 2021, Bitcoin peaked at $65,000, and later in November 2021, it reached $68,000. If anything, BTCUSD surpassed its modest estimates, as the price landed well within the miles of Plan B’s projection.
The model relies on price target reductions post-halving. However, what’s more crucial is what transpires after the 2020 halving, as projected by the S2F model following the subsequent halving.
Could Bitcoin reach $732,000 post the 2024 halving? While achieving this once in accordance with the S2F model is noteworthy, it could also be a matter of luck or coincidence. If the model succeeds once again, the likelihood of its significance increases, especially when the next expected target is $732,000 per Bitcoin. This target exceeds most existing estimates, which range between $100,000 and $200,000 per coin.
This represents an increase of nearly 1800%, a substantial jump from the current levels. From the lowest point of $3,800 during Black Thursday to the peak of 2021 at $68,000, this presents a return of approximately 1600%, indicating these figures are not beyond the realm of possibility for the cryptocurrency king.
In 2017 alone, Bitcoin soared by over 2000%, following an increase of over 400%. Today, Bitcoin has risen by 140% from its lowest levels in 2022. Can the leading cryptocurrency add another 1800% increase to reach the projected peak?
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